AI PRICE FORECAST
MPC Stock Forecast & AI Price Prediction
Marathon Petroleum · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
MPC live signal snapshot
MPC last traded at $402.84, up 3.41% on the session, trading 18.5% below its 52-week high of $493.98 and 148.8% above its 52-week low of $161.93. Our AI model's current call on MPC is HOLD, with 69% confidence. The technical signals aren't aligned enough for a directional call yet. Short-term momentum is deteriorating: the 5-, 10- and 20-day moving averages are stacked downward and price is holding below the 50-day average. The model's one-month path points toward roughly $413.91 (2.7% from here).
On the 14-day relative strength index, MPC reads 34.6, drifting toward the 30 line that marks oversold conditions. Its MACD line is below its signal line with a negative histogram (-7.68) — downward momentum is accelerating. With the 50-day average at $422.89, 41.2% over the 200-day's $299.39, the longer-term trend structure remains positive.
The average 12-month target from 17 Wall Street analysts is $461.94 (range $236.00–$564.00) — 14.7% upside from where MPC trades now. The current recommendation trend leans bullish: 8 Buy/Strong Buy ratings vs 1 Sell/Strong Sell (and 9 Hold).
Live figures from real market data feeds, current as of the last site build. Open the interactive MPC dashboard for numbers updated throughout today's session.
About Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an oil & gas refining & marketing company in the energy sector, headquartered in Findlay, OH, United States. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. It has a market value of about $109.7 billion and roughly 18,500 full-time employees. With a beta of 0.51, the stock has historically moved less than the overall market.
MPC performance vs. the market
Since the start of 2026 the stock has risen 147.7%, ahead of the S&P 500 (+11.4%) and ahead of the energy sector fund XLE (+41.7%). On a one-year view it is up 105.2%, 93.7 points better than the S&P 500. Momentum has recently turned: −15.5% in the last month against +13.0% over three months.
| Period | MPC | Sector (XLE) | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.5% | −5.7% | −2.3% |
| 3 months | +13.0% | +3.8% | −2.3% |
| Year to date | +147.7% | +41.7% | +11.4% |
| 1 year | +105.2% | +40.3% | +11.5% |
Marathon Petroleum financials at a glance
In the quarter ended Sep 30, 2026, Marathon Petroleum reported revenue of $56.5 billion and net income of $7.4 billion (a 13.2% net margin). Revenue was up 60.9% from the same quarter a year earlier. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 on trailing earnings of $50.47 per share. Trailing free cash flow was $16.2 billion, and total debt equals 115% of shareholders' equity.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Net income |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | $56.5B | $7.4B |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $52.3B | $5.1B |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $34.6B | $511M |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $33.4B | $1.5B |
MPC vs. its peers
Against 5 of its largest energy peers, MPC's +147.7% year-to-date return beats 5 of them. None of them has done better this year.
| Company | Price | YTD | P/E | AI verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Petroleum (MPC) | $402.84 | +147.7% | 8.0 | HOLD |
| Valero Energy (VLO) | $363.71 | +123.4% | 8.3 | SELL |
| Phillips 66 (PSX) | $258.68 | +100.5% | 8.3 | HOLD |
| ExxonMobil (XOM) | $166.71 | +38.5% | 17.2 | SELL |
| Chevron (CVX) | $213.28 | +39.9% | 15.7 | SELL |
| ConocoPhillips (COP) | $137.86 | +47.3% | 14.5 | HOLD |
MPC stock: common questions
What is the MPC stock price target?
17 Wall Street analysts put the average 12-month target at $461.94, in a range of $236.00–$564.00, versus a recent price of $402.84. Stock Pulse 247's model projects about $413.91 over the next month.
Is MPC a buy right now?
Our AI model currently rates MPC a HOLD at 69% confidence. Among analysts, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 Hold and 1 Sell. Neither is personal advice — weigh them with your own research and risk tolerance.
How has MPC stock performed this year?
Since the start of 2026 the stock has risen 147.7%, ahead of the S&P 500 (+11.4%) and ahead of the energy sector fund XLE (+41.7%). On a one-year view it is up 105.2%, 93.7 points better than the S&P 500. Momentum has recently turned: −15.5% in the last month against +13.0% over three months.
What is MPC's 52-week high and low?
MPC has traded between $161.93 and $493.98 over the past 52 weeks; at $402.84 it is 18.5% below its 52-week high of $493.98 and 148.8% above its 52-week low of $161.93.
What sector is MPC in, and who are its peers?
MPC is in the energy sector (oil & gas refining & marketing). Its largest peers on Stock Pulse 247 include Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX).
How accurate is the MPC forecast?
It's a model estimate from price history, technical indicators and analyst targets, not a guarantee — no model predicts short-term moves reliably. Use it as one input alongside your own research.
How this works: the forecast combines MPC's price history, momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages), volatility and analyst targets into one estimate. It's a model, not a guarantee.